"where do I believe the balance of probabilities lies?"
That is a good question besty, but the problem with people choosing the most probable argument is that that decision will be tainted by the bias opinion of the individual making that choice and what he/she believes or doesn’t believe in.
On a forum like this it doesn’t surprise me that many people who have been deceived by religious dogma and then have worked out it was all a big lie will revert to the complete contrary perspective. These ones will invariably sway toward believing life happened by chance. Others cling to a faith after leaving and would sincerely believe the balance of probabilities would sway towards a creator. Each ones personal perspective would tip the balance of probabilities according to what they believe or don’t believe. But that will still not ascertain what is truth or come close to proving anything with any certainty.
With that being said, if a hot girl like the one in the picture came up to me wearing a tee-shirt like that, I would tend to be swayed to believe anything she said…. and that would be ‘truth’ enough for me……